[Includes 2024 Tournament Results Not 2025]
Every year the “madness” is put into March Madness with plenty of upsets – especially in the first round of games. But just how often do they happen? And based on tournament history, what are your chances for accurately picking that 15 seed over 2 seed upset?
How many times has the 16 seed beaten the #1? Since 1985, the #16 seed has beaten the #1 seed….just twice. The 16 seed has a pretty darn good record at 150-2.
How man times has the 15 seed beaten the #2 seed? It is still very rare, but the #15 seed has won 11 times – so the 15 seed has a record of 141-11 since 1985.
How man times has the 14 seed beaten the #3 seed? This has happened 22 times since 1985 – so about once every 9 games.
| 16 defeats 1 | 15 defeats 2 | 14 defeats 3 | 13 defeats 4 | 12 defeats 5 | 11 defeats 6 | 10 defeats 7 | 9 defeats 8 | |
| Games Played: 1985-2023 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 |
| # Upsets | 2 | 11 | 22 | 32 | 53 | 54 | 59 | 69 |
| % Upsets | 1.32% | 7.24% | 14.47% | 21.05% | 34.87% | 35.53% | 38.82% | 45.39% |